Global Power Struggles Signal An End to an Era of Diplomacy 全球權力鬥爭顯示外交時代終結

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2023/06/02 第435期 訂閱/退訂∣看歷史報份

紐時周報精選 Global Power Struggles Signal An End to an Era of Diplomacy 全球權力鬥爭顯示外交時代終結 Misinformation Defense Worked in 2020, Up to a Point, Study Finds 研究顯示 一定程度上，2020年假訊息防衛戰成功了

Global Power Struggles Signal An End to an Era of Diplomacy 全球權力鬥爭顯示外交時代終結 文/Peter Baker 譯/茅毅 全球權力鬥爭顯示外交時代終結 President Joe Biden visited Northern Ireland to mark the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, which ended decades of sectarian violence. But the commemoration also serves as an unspoken reminder that such diplomatic breakthroughs have become a thing of the past. 美國總統拜登訪問北愛爾蘭，紀念為數十年教派暴力畫下句點的「耶穌受難日協議」25周年。但這項紀念活動也默默的提醒世人，這類外交突破已淪為明日黃花。 Bargaining tables sit empty these days. Shuttle diplomacy planes have been grounded. Treaties are more likely to be broken than brokered. 如今談判桌空蕩蕩，為穿梭外交奔走的專機已停飛。條約更有可能被破壞而非被促成。 It would be too much to call it the death of diplomacy, but there certainly is a dearth of diplomacy for now. The Russians have suspended the New START treaty, the last major Russian-American arms control agreement, and there appears to be little prospect for diplomacy to halt the fighting in Ukraine in the near term. 將這種情況稱為外交已死未免太過，但目前確實缺乏外交。俄國人已中止「新戰略武器裁減條約」，這是美俄之間最後一項主要的武器管制協議，近期內透過外交終結烏克蘭境內戰鬥的可能性也很低。 Even on the international economic front, once a fruitful field for American presidents to leave their mark, there is little meaningful movement to continue the integration of recent years. Biden opted against rejoining the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the sweeping free trade pact negotiated by a previous administration he belonged to, nor is he pursuing any other major free trade agreement, making him the first president not to do so in four decades. 即使在歷任美國總統一度留下豐功偉績的國際經濟方面，近年來亦缺乏有意義的行動繼續推動整合。拜登選擇不重新加入他曾隸屬的前政府談成的廣泛自由貿易協定「跨太平洋夥伴協定」，也不追求其他重大自貿協議，使他成為40年來第一個不這樣做的美國總統。 "There's something about the moment that doesn't make it very ripe," said Martin S. Indyk, who served as ambassador to Israel twice and later as President Barack Obama's special envoy for Middle East peace. "It's harder to get big agreements when you're in this adversarial engagement, both with Russia and with China." 曾兩度擔任美國駐以色列大使、後來出任歐巴馬總統中東和平特使的英迪克說，「有些事情讓時機並不很成熟，當你跟俄羅斯和中國都處於如此敵對的狀態時，更難達成重大協議」。 With the revival of great power competition on the scale of the Cold War, the ground for diplomacy has shifted. There is little appetite in Moscow or Beijing for meeting in the middle, while some of the world's seemingly intractable disputes such as that between Israel and the Palestinians have settled into a stalemate locked in geopolitical cement. 鑑於規模有如「冷戰」的大國競爭重啟，外交的基礎已經轉變。莫斯科或北京無意妥協，而世界一些看似棘手的爭端，如以色列和巴基斯坦，則已習於被卡在地緣政治膠著的僵局中。 Domestic politics have not eased the way for major international agreements either. The rise of Donald Trump ushered in a nationalist, even isolationist, moment in the United States that eschews foreign entanglements. Globalism, once the bipartisan consensus, has become a bad word and with it the notion of tying American interests to those of other countries. 國內政治也沒有為重大國際協議鋪路。川普的崛起，開啟一個民族主義甚至孤立主義的時刻，讓美國迴避和外國的牽連。曾是美國兩黨共識的全球主義，已淪為一個不好的字眼，帶有將美國國家利益與其他國家綁在一起的看法。　 Misinformation Defense Worked in 2020, Up to a Point, Study Finds 研究顯示 一定程度上，2020年假訊息防衛戰成功了 文/Tiffany Hsu 譯/周辰陽 研究顯示 一定程度上，2020年假訊息防衛戰成功了 Not long after misinformation plagued the 2016 election, journalists and content moderators scrambled to turn Americans away from untrustworthy websites before the 2020 vote. 假訊息困擾美國2016年選舉後不久，記者與內容審查員忙著在2020年投票前讓美國人遠離不可信賴網站。 A new study suggests that, to some extent, their efforts succeeded. 一項新研究表明，在一定的程度上，他們的努力成功了。 When Americans went to the polls in 2020, a far smaller portion had visited websites containing false and misleading narratives compared with four years earlier, according to researchers at Stanford University. Although the number of such sites ballooned, the average visits among those people dropped, along with the time spent on each site. 據史丹福大學研究人員所說，跟4年前相比，美國人2020年前往投票所時，到訪過含有錯誤與誤導性言論網站的比率要小得多。儘管此類網站數量激增，這些人的平均訪問次數以及在每個網站消磨的時間都下降了。 Efforts to educate people about the risk of misinformation after 2016, including content labels and media literacy training, most likely contributed to the decline, the researchers found. Their study was published Thursday in the journal Nature Human Behavior. 研究人員發現，2016年後教育民眾關於假訊息風險的努力，包括內容標籤與媒體識讀訓練，很可能促成了下降。他們的研究周四刊登在《自然人類行為》期刊。 Still, nearly 68 million people in the United States checked out websites that were not credible, visiting 1.5 billion times in a month in 2020, the researchers estimated. 儘管如此，研究人員估計，美國有近6,800萬人查看了不可信的網站，2020年一個月內訪問了15億次。 As the 2024 election approaches, the researchers worry that misinformation is evolving and splintering. Beyond web browsers, many people are exposed to conspiracy theories and extremism simply by scrolling through mobile apps such as TikTok. More dangerous content has shifted onto encrypted messaging apps with difficult-to-trace private channels, such as Telegram or WhatsApp. 隨著2024年選舉接近，研究人員擔心假訊息正在演變跟分裂。除了網路瀏覽器之外，許多民眾僅僅通過上下捲動諸如TikTok的行動應用程式，就接觸到了陰謀論與極端主義。更多危險內容已轉移到設有難以追蹤私人頻道的加密通訊應用程式，像是紙飛機（Telegram）或WhatsApp。 The boom in generative artificial intelligence, the technology behind the popular ChatGPT chatbot, has also raised alarms about deceptive images and mass-produced falsehoods. 熱門的「ChatGPT」聊天機器人背後技術，即生成式人工智慧的迅速發展，也引發對欺騙性圖像跟大規模生產謬誤的警告。 The Stanford researchers said that even limited or concentrated exposure to misinformation could have serious consequences. Baseless claims of election fraud incited a riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. More than two years later, congressional hearings, criminal trials and defamation court cases are still addressing what happened. 史丹福大學研究人員表示，即使是有限或集中接觸假訊息，也可能產生嚴重後果。毫無根據的選舉舞弊說法煽動了2021年1月6日美國國會山莊暴亂事件，2年多以後，國會聽證會、刑事官司與誹謗訴訟案件仍在處理當時發生的事情。 The Stanford researchers monitored the online activity of 1,151 adults from Oct. 2 through Nov. 9, 2020, and found that 26.2% visited at least one of 1,796 unreliable websites. They noted that the time frame did not include the postelection period when baseless claims of voter fraud were especially pronounced. 史丹福大學研究人員監控1151名成年人從2020年10月2日至11月9日的線上活動，發現26.2%訪問了1796個不可靠網站裡的至少一個。他們指出，時間範圍並不包含選後時期，此時無根據的選舉舞弊說法特別明顯。 That was down from an earlier, separate report that found that 44.3% of adults visited at least one of 490 problematic domains in 2016. 這個數字低於一份之前的單獨報告，該報告發現44.3%的成年人在2016年訪問過490個有問題網域裡的至少一個網站。

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